I’ve been thinking a lot about exponential technology and asking myself: “Is disruptive change due to ‘Moore’s Law’ done?” Newsweek recently proclaimed, “The Future Is Uncertain As Moore’s Law Comes To An End.” However, while most experts agree that silicon transistors will stop shrinking around 2021, this doesn’t mean Moore’s Law is dead in spirit — even though, technically, it might be.
Chip makers have to find another way to increase power. For example, there are Germanium and III-V technologies — and, at some point, carbon Nano-tubes — that provide new ways of increasing power. There is also “gate-all-around” transistor design, extreme-ultraviolet and self-directed assembly techniques, and so on. But how will more powerful CPUs drive future disruptions? I don’t know for sure, but I suspect not as much as other exponential trends and the technologies that exploit them. Here is what I’m thinking:
More of the Forrester blog post from Brian Hopkins
